The Edge of Disruption – Automotive, Petroleum and Steel Industries – Tony Seba

The Edge of Disruption – Automotive, Petroleum and Steel Industries – Tony Seba


welcome everybody good afternoon my name is Tim Keegan from AMD capital I’m going to speak very briefly this I imagine is going to be an incredibly exciting session the hearing of that disruption Toni Seaver has been on a plane from Oslo he’s with us briefly in Sydney before he heads off to Boulder Colorado then after Brussels as he tells the tale of disruption around the world this session is going to last for about 45 minutes and then there’ll be some short time for Q&A the sponsor of the event is Norton Rose Fulbright and I’d like to welcome Simon Curry the global head of energy to introduce Tony and so this in front of you as a glimpse into my mind which is quite scary for most people this was formed in many parts because of when I started raining Tony’s books and the whole things around the edge of the possible this is the way you know this is the way we now look at our business and while you know I’m obscene to be a lawyer I’m much more interesting when I talk about things like this and there’s various things on here which are directly relevant to what Tony will talk about we talk about things like the terawatt initiative which is all about solar getting to zero at the same time as mobilizing the trillions and we happen to sit on trillions in Australia into the solar industry so yours happy to invest and Malawi as you are in the u.s. because effectively this financial product so in high net which effectively encourage you to basically just follow the Sun I also talked a lot about the hydrogen economy and what that is going to do to us in terms of something we used to think we were going to crack from coal but we now look at green hydrogen and again as the Saudi Arabia of solar what we can potentially do when you’ve got 24 million people abundant land and there’s a Kiwi you said here going that most of the stuff you do here that’s not farming and the way I look at it that’s an intergenerational burden and many cases and we have to work out how we can use that land better with different tools in the future a few years ago you have all laughed at me about the sort of discussion but that’s where we’re heading now so I’ll get out of the way and let you hear from Tony and you can see why I told all of my team around the world they just had to read the books Thank You Inka salmon thank you so much for that introduction and thanks you all for being here click so I want to take you into the future and I want to tell you about the edge of disruptions but before I do that I want to take you into the past we used horses as humanity for thousands of years this is New York City 1957 ooh can anyone see the one car in that picture all horses except one car there it is one car 13 years later can anyone see the horse in that picture 13 years that’s all it took from all horse to all car there’s the one horse it doesn’t even look like a horse this is a disruption this is what’s called a technology disruption and what is a disruption it’s when new products and services do two things one is to create a new market in to either destroy or radically transform existing industries and I’ll take you to 1985 when the then largest telecom company on earth AT&T hire consulting company McKinsey and they ask them one question one question in 15 years how many subscribers will this thing called cellphone have in 15 years just give me one number so Mackenzie went off and did whatever it is they do and they came back with their number 900,000 in 15 years the real number was a hundred and nine million this is not a small mistake this is a factor of 120 X and of course AT&T landline got disrupted but not just that they missed out the largest wealth creation opportunity legal of the 21st century if you just look at the top five internet mobile companies Apple and Google and Amazon and Facebook and so on that’s two trillion US dollars in market valuation just as five top companies and those are the opportunities that you miss out on when you miss out on technology disruptions and it’s usually smart people it’s usually the experts and the insiders who will dismiss disruptive opportunities they’ll say now can’t possibly happen or not this quickly it can’t possibly happen this quickly and so this my work is disruption and it’s also to answer this question why do smart people in smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate let alone lead market disruption so I have over the last few years created a new framework that not only can explain disruptions you know in the past which is not that hard but can hopefully predict an anticipate disruption so walk you through this a little bit and then I’ll show you the disruption of Transportation so the first model is disruption from below and this is a traditional form of disruption where you start out with a product that is inferior relative to the mainstream market but because it improves at a faster rate than the market it pierces and disrupts the market from below so solar energy personal computers the web web publishing so if you look at newspaper publishing revenues were going up and up and up and up and even as to the web even after landscape and in browsers and so on record revenues kept increasing so what did experts say and the web who cares nobody will ever read newspaper online I mean can you believe now that that’s what the experts are saying really smart people and of course the this is what happened boom okay when disruptions happen they happen in an instant and essentially the newspaper industry still hasn’t paid rock-bottom disruption from above this is what essentially the smartphone is which was not explained before when the iPhone came out in 2007 in the Android folks were saying who would ever buy a $600 phone when you can buy the hundred dollar Nokia remember Nokia gone right this is the disruption from above this is when you have a superior product but also more expensive now what the experts miss is that this is not usually a one-to-one substitution they miss that and the iPhone is not just a phone we can make phone calls but that’s one of the many things that we can do with the iPhone same thing with the electric vehicle right when you ask yes the experts they look at you know the e V versus the internal combustion engine automobile also one-to-one substitute and it’s not because you can do a lot of things with the electric vehicle and I’ll explain that but even if all you do the e V starts out that’s more expensive product but if you take the technology cost curve you can essentially anticipate when it’s going to pierce the market from above and it’s going to essentially disrupt the gasoline the petrol vehicle from above but that’s not really what’s going to happen because of this Big Bang disruption you know come back to Big Bang later but Big Bang destruction is when products come out and on day one they are cheaper faster better more convenient and more customizable on day one so the incumbents have no chance no chance period right and so one example is Google with driving Direction API the day that it came out versus Garmin remember Garmin TomTom gone right and this is when the day to the day that Google came out with labs look at the stock price it went down 80% plus within weeks they had no chance right this is a big bank disruption so here’s a question why how can you products be faster cheaper better more customizable more convenient on day one okay and can you anticipate that if you’re an incumbent so one of these things we have to look at is technologies and technologies have sauce curves essentially how quickly do they improve on that same dollar basis and so Moore’s law is the best known cost curve which means on the same dollar basis it says that computing improves by about 2x every two years so it improves our about 41 percent per year so essentially 41 percent improvement means or 20 years it improves by a thousand times so your smartphone $600 is the equivalent of a six hundred thousand dollar computer just 20 years ago or six hundred million dollar computer four years ago six hundred billion dollar computer sixty years ago right so that kind of improvement is what has made Silicon Valley what it is but it’s not just Moore’s law every single technology has a cost curve digital imaging and network capacity and listen my own batteries and so on and it’s not that these technologies are disruptive but it’s when you combine them and this is what I call technology convergence it’s the convergence of technologies that make possible new business models and new products so we need to look at the know the convergence not single technologies because that’s what makes new products possible and so the iPhone and the rooibos came out ten years ago in 2007 both of them was that a coincidence it wasn’t because that was the year when all the technologies that made the smartphone possible came out and it just so happened that Google and Apple were the ones who put it together it could have been somebody else it could have been water Ola but they didn’t do it right so those technologies converged 2007 the other thing we need to know about technology disruptions in technology adoption is that they have been SS curves so this is you know one example we need to know what the tipping point is going to be it may take a while weeks years decades before we hit the tipping point but when it tips essentially grows exponentially and it’s over I mean the incumbents are over over you know a few years or a few weeks or whatever right s-curves but mainstream analysts will give you you know straight lines they’ll say that the future is just like the past plus or minus ten percent per year it doesn’t happen that way you know when disruptions happen they happen very quickly so not only that but the s-curves are accelerating if you look at the s-curves of different technologies from the 1900s to the you know to the last few years they’re getting steeper and steeper and steeper that means that this means that it’s happening much more quickly disruptions are happening much more quickly because technologies are being adopted much more quickly okay if anything I mean they’re not linear at all so what am I looking at what kind of technologies am i following that I think that when they converge in different ways are going to disrupt different industries because make no mistake every single industry on earth will be disrupted over the next five to 15 years every single last one of them okay so I’m looking at these ones of these technology sensor it’s artificial intelligence solar batteries and so on and in different combination as they can disrupt different industries so let me give you this example sensors we don’t think much about sensors but you have a couple dozen sensors in your iPhone or your Android and sensors have improved in caused by about a thousand times since 2007 a thousand times now a 10x usually means a disruption but a thousand times is incredible in just seven years and also the number of sensors that are produced every year went up in 2007 from 10 million to 10 billion in 2014 and if it keeps improving at that rate essentially what we’re looking at is 10 trillion sensors per year before to 2025 10 trillion sensors think about it 7 billion people on earth 10 trillion sensors per year that’s 1,300 sensors per person what on earth are we going to do with that think about it but you have to if you want to think about disruption so one conclusion is of course everything will have embedded sensors shirts you know fitbit’s everything everyone will have embedded sensors – so let me talk a little bit about product innovation sports for instance who thought about sensors in sports well there are companies that are doing these sensor based little devices that can help you with your swing right baseball tennis cricket if you swing with sports you know essentially it helps you with your swing right basically improve it for a couple hundred dollars basketball it it with sensors essentially it can show you the art to push you know how hard or whatever so that you can improve it that’s a couple hundred dollars one – if you play basketball when I pay that to improve your game I would transportation so this is what an autonomous car sees when it uses a sensor called lidar so lidar is the essential sensor for autonomous vehicles it’s essentially it emits laser pulses about a million per second that bounce back 100 meters 200 meters they bounce back like a radar and essentially it uses a supercomputer in the trunk to generate a picture like this so that it can self drive so in 2012 a lidar was about 17,000 dollars and what did the experts say in 2012 autonomous vehicles not going to happen right $70,000 is so expensive okay so next year it was 10,000 the following year 1,000 moom right not only that last year Silicon Valley company announced a 250 dollar lidar solid-state so it lasts longer and it’s about yay big so it doesn’t have to be on the top of the car ugly but you can put it anywhere 250 even if you use 3/4 of them it’s only a thousand bucks incremental cost not only that they also announced a $90 lidar besides of a postage stamp fits in your iPhone what are you going to do with it I don’t know but you know let’s go figure right that’s opportunity for you now all of these sensors are going to create big data because they’re going to be emitting data 24/7 every second of every you know day and so on and what we expect is that over the next 10 years or so the amount of data generated by sensors and us is going to go up by about 10,000 times 10,000 do you think we have big data now just to wait 10,000 times we’re going to look back at today as the good old days of little data it is going to be so much data and the interesting thing about this for the entrepreneurs in the crowd is that data about things may actually be more valuable than the things themselves so we wrap your head around that I mean think about over how many cars do they own zero right they have data a lot of data about transportation a lot of data about you and me and a lot of data about the drivers it’s a data card attention right so data about transportation may be more important than transportation itself artificial intelligence has made more progress over the last few years and over the previous three decades and just to give you an example this was the world’s fastest supercomputer the first one teraflops trillion floating point operations per second in the year 2000 it was the size of this room and it costs 50 million dollars one third of flops 50 million dollars now last year’s version of the NVIDIA GPU was a two teraflops computer for 50 bucks 1 million time improvement since the year 2000 and that’s just the hardware doesn’t include the improvement in software which has been more insane and they just announced that 20 teraflops computer that essentially is what we’re going to need to power self-driving cars 20 teraflops in just two years 10x and they also say that essentially they’re going to improve by about 1,000 times by 2025 so essentially anything a is going to improve by a thousand times not including software from here to 2025 so what’s going to improve well look you know today a computer can essentially read and map out and essentially give doctors a conclusion in minutes that it will take them weeks to process doctors right minutes if they could possibly do that and anything I mean what you need to remember also is that the hardware the sensors the GPU the AI that works for self-driving car can work for a robot can also work for a ship can also work for a plane it’s portable all of this technology is portable just like computing is portable so you know robots are going to improve by about a thousand times right is this hardware improves by a thousand times so robots already can do surgery stitching better than the best doctor on earth already sub millimeter precision already and they’re going to get a thousand times better you know by 2025 and robots can actually do experimental prostate surgery inside an MRI machine try that with a human doctor inside an MRI machine and so another technology is 3d printing so interesting can anyone see where the statue is where is the jewelry anyone there it’s smaller than a human hair that’s how little you can print with a 3d printer but that’s not as interesting as this the whole dental braces in the stree was disrupted by a company called Invisalign does anyone remember metal braces well you know they don’t exist anymore because they’re all 3d printed in two years studying this tree was wiped out with 3d printers by this company in San Jose but you can sweidy print basically anything any part of you okay and that industry is improving also exponential you can 3d print a car and in fact this car is already out there driving of course electric car because I’ll tell you why but you can already 3d print an electric car drones are also improving exponentially so you know the Swiss postal system is already delivering letters with drones in New Zealand they’re already delivering pizza with drones right and they’re improving really really quickly this is the first drone that can self not drive but fly a human a human being can fly human being about a half an hour you just say take me here and it it’s $100,000 but if you look at the cost curve essentially you can map out when this is going to be affordable and convergence convergence remember technology convergence right so imagine a van self-driving van imagine UPS or FedEx and whatnot with drones so it doesn’t stop in double Park in triple part to deliver but you have a number of a dozen two dozen drones that come in and out of the truck that is self-driving okay so think about what this disruption would do to logistics and a lot of these pieces are already there it’s just a matter of when not if now this is modern innovation is every bit as disruptive as technology innovation is not more so if you think of uber uber is actually a business model disruption why because they took advantage of the cloud they took advantage of the smartphone and then essentially created technology and you build up a new business model they’re a broker between two markets so it’s an old business model but they adapted to a new basically technology convergence and if you look at uber and think that they were started 2009 eight years ago and today they have bookings that are higher than the whole US staff the industry today I mean if anyone tells you that you can’t have a disruption in transportation in ten years well look at over all ready to have you know bookings higher than the whole US taxi industry and in New York City there are 500,000 rights not just with over but with all right sharing companies per day 500,000 per day and that’s doubling every year okay Airbnb it’s also business model innovation so again they took advantage of the cloud and and and and and smartphones and so on and they created a whole new industry and they’re starting the process of disrupting hotels so always remember business model innovation and this is model innovation is enabled by technology convergence and so we’ve looked at a few of these pieces and how can we accelerate disruptions because we can openness that’s what is accelerating disruption so if you look at some of these robots some of these robots like Baxter and and and and so on use an open operating system anyone in this room can go and download basically robot operating system for free and use it in a robot and anyone anywhere on earth today can essentially use a free operating system and develop their own robot how disruptive is that so that tends to accelerate openness tends to accelerate disruptions and look at you know API is APS a programming interface essentially you have all of Amazon’s infrastructure available to you you have robots you have a whole host of basically companies who open up their technology so that anyone anywhere can start a company without much investment so the cost of entrepreneurship the cost of getting into a business is going down dramatically because of this openness and of course open research so batteries are improving you know are accelerating the improvement and one of the reasons is that a lot of the research is open and so there’s the video battery research open anyone anywhere who wants to participate is helping everyone everywhere so this openness accelerates disruptions so talking about battery can we anticipate disruptions so how can we use this framework to anticipate disruption so let’s do it let’s talk about transportation transportation 2020 2030 so I just published a research report called the disruption of Transportation 2020 2030 and this is how it’s going to happen using this framework so electric vehicles are the disruptive well many reasons why they are on a per mile basis EVs are 10 times cheaper to charge then combustion engine automobiles ten times every time we have a thin X we have a potentially disruptive opportunity and electric vehicle it has a hundred times fewer parts than a combustion engine automobile a hundred times your car has 2,000 moving parts and evey about 20 this means that maintenance for EVs are essentially zero I mean ten times at least cheaper than maintaining a combustion engine the lifetime this is something that a whole lot of people don’t see because we only drive about 10,000 miles per year but an Eevee can last 500,000 miles unless we drive a car for 50 years which nobody does the this is not a useful thing right but I’ll tell you why it’s useful when you do the numbers for disruption now if all you look at is a it’s an easy as a one-to-one substitute then you can map out when it’s going to disrupt the internal combustion engine automobile so we’re at the point now that an eveywhere 320 kilometer range is 35 to 40 thousand dollars and we can map out how soon it’s going to essentially disrupt the whole ice card industry but that’s not it I mean autonomous vehicles are going to be an enabler of the big disruption and the totem of vehicles are not that far away I mean fly out to Singapore and you can take already a taxi that’s autonomous today and Pittsburgh you can also do the same thing with over so over has a fleet of self-driving cars that they’re testing in in Pittsburgh and there are now 30 plus corporations large corporations investing billions of dollars in making autonomous technology why well here’s one that law says that by the end of this year every Tesla will be able to drive from a parking lot in San Francisco to a parking lot in New York without being touched by a human by the end of this year that’s level three level five is when you don’t need a steering wheel or a pedal level five that’s like the ultimate of the ultimate right and they say that within two years by 2019 they’re going to have level five autonomous vehicle now think about this autonomous vehicles are computers on wheels that’s what they are they have a computer they have an operating system just like a personal computer just like a smartphone so the first one to get that operating system going is going to be a big winner see so we have dozens of corporations who want to be the first because in operating systems there’s going to be just one two three that make it that’s it so what is the disruptive impact of autonomous vehicles well let’s do this let’s call it transport as a service and oh one thing that I forgot we pay $10,000 a year for cars and yet we only use them four percent of the time four percent what a waste 4% asset utilization is a disruption waiting to happen and how is that going to happen let’s converge electric vehicles autonomous and the business model of right sharing and so what happens is that driving time those from 4% of the time to 40% so you have autonomous vehicles riding around taking us to work and basically taking then somebody from work to the supermarket and then taking somebody from there to home 40% of the time instead of 4% of the time that means 10 times more utilization that means what they can drive a hundred thousand miles per year instead of 10,000 miles per year so they’re really driving all the time and this is where the electric vehicle which lasts 500,000 miles it’s useful as opposed to 140,000 now so if you depreciate that cost over 500,000 miles on a per mile basis which is disruptions may bring new metrics so the new metric of the disruption of transport is cost per mile this is what you get task transport to the service assume that they’re approved 2021 the day that autonomous vehicles are approved autonomous electric on-demand tasks will be up to 10 times cheaper than buying a new car so if you’re going to buy a new car 2021 your decision is going to be do I spend $10,000 a year over the next five years or will spend $1,000 a year over the next five years no-brainer every time in history that there’s been a 10x difference between similar products and services and cause there’s been a disruption every single time period right so assuming that this happens 2021 it’s going to be a 10-year disruption essentially you can map it out as an S curve and this is what’s going to happen by the end of by 2030 95% of passenger miles will be autonomous electric miles 95% from 2021 to 2030 boom that’s a disruption that’s a disruption of two things of the individual ownership business model and of the internal combustion engine automobile and that’s going to happen very quickly and what else is going to happen so because we have cars being used ten times as much we’re going to need fewer cars so we’re going to need 80% fewer cars the fleet is going to shrink so 80% for your cars what happens with parking lots empty especially in the high real-estate areas gone parking lots 80 to 90% of parking space it’s gone right but the u.s. the vehicle fleet shrinks by 80% which means what does it mean for the auto industry if you’re an auto manufacturer here’s what it means that demand for new cars is going to shrink by 70% so the size of the industry is going to go down by 70% at the same time that we have hundreds of electric vehicle companies coming into the space so if you’re an auto manufacturer it’s going to be ugly it’s gonna be ugly right what about the oil industry here’s what’s going to happen oil demand is going to be 2020 and 100 million dollars to Vero because it’s all going to be electric starting 2021 and it’s going to go down to about 70 million barrels by 2030 so it’s going to go down 30% but there’s something interesting about the oil industry when you go down to essentially 70 million barrels the price is going to collapse immediately so the price of oil because of the elasticity of both demand and supply of oil because you only need about two million barrels over supply in order for prices to crash that price crash is going to happen as soon as 2021 or 2022 which means that the new equilibrium calls for oil is going to be $25 if you can’t compete at 25 as soon as 2021 or two essentially you have a stranded asset so anything that is shale sands or deepwater oil that can’t compete at 25 gone stranded forever because it’s not coming back right so let me wrap it up essentially this is how disruptions happen okay we have a combination of Technology clusters and business model innovation and openness and product innovation and this is where we are in 2017 this is the point where we have a loan car in a sea of courses and disruptions happen very quickly and this is the age of disruptions when you combine these technologies that I showed you in different ways and with different business models essentially every single industry is going to be disrupted over the next five to 15 years you name the industry is going to be disrupted when you combine these technologies in different ways and these are you know the technologies that I am tracking and anything is possible I mean these technologies and new business models are you know becoming available with any convergence and every convergence of these technologies and you have to track it in your industry otherwise you know disrupt or be disrupted that’s the way that it’s going to be but everything is going to be possible essentially this is the edge of the possible and hopefully when you’ll use this technology disruption for a mortgage it can help you put together disruptive products and you know you’re an incumbent help you avoid being disrupted and the edge of the possible is not in the future you know the age of disruption is not in the future it is right now thank you [Applause] yep okay so we’ve been really good and we’ve lift lots of time for questions so as I said over lunch this is the sort of presentation where you either run screaming from the room in either delight or fear or as if you’re in New Zealand that you’re really excited about having sheep delivered by drones to your door bit so I’ll now um yeah so Phoenix tawny very privileged place shall I kick off a Christian to start with absolutely SH um what about brand you know we’ve got all these companies around the world we have huge brand value serving on the balance sheets what does almost mean for brand value yeah so transport as a service means that very relationship for the customer it’s not going to be with a car it’s going to be when we get an over today essentially we’re getting an uber we don’t care what’s behind it in a data center I mean our relationship is with Facebook or Google not with the computer that’s in that data center so if our companies don’t get in front of this transport as a service and they get in your app and complete with the ubers essentially that brand will be gone they’ll become out of ties in other words okay okay I think we’ve got some mics roving around they’re not coming to you by drawing it hi thanks for excellent presentation I’m interested in the timing of say driverless cars obviously yeah we know now the technologies here and proven but I gets a different today with mobile phones in terms of adoption is you’ve got a strong regulatory legal aspect don’t cars going around rather mobile phone yeah you know got a bet with a friend on how long it’s going to take me to be able to get in the driver’s car in Sydney what do you think the timing will be given that there’s another kind of angle from a regulatory and even an ethical point of view raised from driverless technology right so from an ethical point of view we’re going to see 1.2 million lives every year when we have driverless cars we’re going to be able to essentially offer cheap convenient transportation to essentially you know the elderly the disabled the very young and so on so from an ethical they disabled from an ethical perspective I think it’s a no-brainer you know it’s a big huge plus for society so from a technology point of view you have dozens and dozens of companies basically moving into the space and again if you think of autonomous vehicles are computers on wheels you need one operating system to work one right you need a OS you need an Android once one works then essentially it’s basically going to happen and then it’s going to depend on which country or somewhere or which state in the u.s. that essentially approves it and they’re going to approve it because it makes sense why does it make sense because no economy so past transfers of service is going to be 10 times cheaper then essentially the internal combustion engine individually owned economy that we have today 10 times cheaper the countries that don’t go to a v’s autonomous electric vehicles essentially cannot compete you know they’re going to have an infrastructure that is 10 times more expensive and it’s going to be you know like competing against cars with horses it’s it’s that same thing right so countries that want to compete are going to have to approve it once anybody anywhere approves AED so you’re going to see this competitive policymaking which is already happening so last week Colorado announced that there you know approving self-driving cars and every week you’re seeing new countries or new states and so on that are approving pilots and when the first operating system is going to happen Tesla says 2019 in my model I say 2021 but this model works basically it’s a ten year disruption no matter when it starts so the first time that we have level five autonomous vehicles and it’s approved it’s a ten year disruption and if it’s 2019 it’s going to basically like 2020 eight or nine even have 95 percent of miles being autonomous electric vehicles hi thank you very much was a little scary I suppose I’m looking at infrastructure so we know that I’m property and we love property here in Australia and it’s been driven a lot while your boxing moved to the city and you look at Palm Beach prices versus Central Coast or look at the money the government spending on infrastructure at the moment it feels like that the property and infrastructure is a big disruptor coming as a result or something restructured as a result of this if you’ve got any thoughts or work you’ve done on that yes so you’re going to have 80 90 percent of working space vacant so I’ve done the numbers for Los Angeles for instance and the vacant parking space in LA will be able to fit three cities the size of San Francisco check that out right so but it’s a big opportunity essentially for the first time and you know a century if not more as a society we’re going to have the opportunity to redesign our cities to be what we want our cities to be do we want that space to be green parks do we want that space to be new businesses do we want that space or what percent affordable housing and so on and so forth right so it’s going to be an opportunity for us to redesign our cities for people not for cost and I see that as a huge opportunity yeah so picking out that I’m what decent governments can do to get the best out of so options get ahead of it so that’s a great question first of all ignore the mainstream analysts you know tell you that things are just going to change five ten percent per year and so on in the future is going to be just like the past it won’t you know disruptions don’t happen and linearly they happen you know in s curves and and dramatically so essentially you need to do the numbers on the disruption on every disruption telecom health care food foods going to be disrupted in a big way energy is going to be disrupted in a big way and get in front of it and do the numbers you know mitigate the downside so for transportation for instance drivers truck drivers they’re going to lose their job so we’re going to have five million folks are going to lose their job on the other hand we’re going to have an extra just us numbers trillion dollars in consumer spending that consumers are going to essentially say by not owning a car and using transportation as a service a trillion dollars and then an additional trillion dollars because we’re not going to waste time driving so nurses will be able to well nurse and lawyers will be able to lawyer and consultants to consult and and so on while not driving so essentially that’s going to generate an extra trillion dollar of productivity so just in transportation we’ll be able to generate an additional two trillion dollars which is ten fifteen percent addition to GDP by going to transport as a service and at the same time we’re going to have to mitigate the job losses so governments will need to look at the pluses and the minuses mitigate the minuses and take advantage of the pluses but do it with data right do it with evidence rather than just you know old-fashioned politicking and and so on and so forth but get in front of it I mean do the numbers because we do need to mitigate the losses while taking advantage of the outside doesn’t work let’s live it out try this come you know this seems to be an overarching theme if you go back to where you showed that dramatic increase in the time in the right in case of disruption it was really about the point that we went from going to capex to OPEX if you think about you know all the guys Amazon Google and such when they had access to a cloud and created the market suddenly instead of having to shell out a billion dollars of you know capex in order to set up a business you basically just logged on and set up your business especially if it’s just the IT base almost overnight I guess the question is there’s such overarching themes because one of the things about technology that worries me is there’s this mindless thing that it goes on forever and as if you’ve all seen you know we’ve seen technology has just run into walls silicon technology which you mentioned died the early version in about 2003 as a Moore’s Law sort of ended since then there’s been no progress in the speed of a thread in a computer and in about 2020 or so it dies altogether because silicon goes quantum mechanical which can see ways think it doesn’t work anymore so the question is this is the opposite sort of disrupter and it’s not to say acceleration stops it doesn’t they’ll find other ways around it they always have but am curious are there higher level themes than these sort of discrete things because what we’ve seen in the growth of businesses in the IT space has really been around the ability to stand up the business like Facebook in the span of literally a month versus 10 years I’m sorry what’s the question like ahead is there an overarching theme in this dramatic acceleration you’re seeing such as in the IP space you could push it back to say look here we have the availability of standing up IT literally but as a service I mean is that your sort of high level view of all of these as an example is there one overarching theme you’re seeing where you really just believe it’s a wide diversity of things um so so I’m going to disagree with with you on a couple of things one is that yes CPUs are so they’re Intel their personal computers and so on they’re slowing down but not GPS so GPUs is basically are used for artificial intelligence and if it’s also Nvidia they’re saying that they’re improving by about 50 percent per year so the architecture may change but essentially the improvement rate it’s actually accelerating for GPUs it’s even higher than it used to be for for CPUs if you look at the history of information from about 1890 it’s been pretty much an accelerating rate for 130 years and we’ve have different technologies that substitute for the for the last one and I’ve heard for 30 years that it’s the end of Moore’s law and guess what it hasn’t ended and it won’t end anytime soon it’s just going to be a different technology you know it may which one it’s going to be for for the foreseeable future GPUs and then who knows right so so I’m going to disagree with you on that point and on the other point of whether it’s cap X or of X it’s just a matter of who does the cap the cap X’s investments so it’s users as consumers of Transportation we’re not going to have to buy a car now that doesn’t mean that somebody’s not going to buy a car somebody is going to buy a car just that like somebody buys an airplane and we use it as a service just like essentially if there’s an industry that buys airplane leases airplanes and essentially were just users as a service and so essentially the the auto industry is going in that direction where we as users use it as a service but somebody else takes on the capex and it’s going to be the force and the ubers and so on and so forth so we benefited because they have you know scale they have better capital they have better manufacturing there and so on and so forth and so as users we benefit tremendously you know we’re going to save up to 90 percent of the cost of transportation because of that because we’re going to transfer it out to somebody else and efficiencies are gonna go up so in this intimate of everything how worried should I be about cyber risk I mean you should be worried today about you know nuclear power plants being you know Hut and in fact you know we know that they can be hot because the US government has done it right so you know should you be worried about one car being hacked well I’m worried about nuclear plants being hacked yeah it is now time to wrap up sadly because no doubt we could talk for another hour with Tony the good thing is that we now all have lots of content for an external party or barbecues and many things that’ll rack our brains in the middle of the night thank you again to not in Rose Fulbright Simon for sponsoring this talk by Tony and thanks for coming via to Sidney again enjoyed it it’s nice [Applause]


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